Tail-Hedge Discounting and the Social Cost of Carbon

نویسنده

  • Martin L. Weitzman
چکیده

The choice of an overall discount rate for climate change investments depends critically on how di¤erent components of investment payo¤s are discounted at di¤ering rates re‡ecting their underlying risk characteristics. Such underlying rates can vary enormously, from 1% for idiosyncratic diversi…able risk to 7% for systematic nondiversi…able risk. Which risk-adjusted rate is chosen can have a huge impact on costbene…t analysis. In this expository paper I attempt to set forth in accessible language with a simple linear model what I think are some of the basic issues involved in discounting climate risks. The paper introduces a new concept that may be relevant for climate-change discounting: the degree to which an investment hedges against the bad tail of catastrophic damages by insuring positive expected payo¤s even under the worst circumstances. The prototype application is calculating the social cost of carbon.

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تاریخ انتشار 2013